Since 2005, DWR has managed water releases into Middle Piru Creek (MPC), downstream of Pyramid Dam, to simulate the natural hydrology of Upper Piru Creek (upstream of Pyramid Lake) and maintain habitat for the arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus). On behalf of DWR, we conducted annual surveys from 2010 to 2019 to monitor arroyo toad populations in MPC. Our analysis involved the comparison of clutch data collected along a 7-mile segment of MPC and 1.5-mile segment of Agua Blanca Creek (ABC) (control) against various quantifiable factors, including average annual Pyramid Dam outflow, average annual precipitation, average annual water temperature, and the prevalence of exotic predators. Average rainfall correlated with breeding success in ABC, the unmanaged control area; however, it did not in the managed MPC. While both water temperature and rainfall were inversely correlated with dam outflow, outflow did not correlate with breeding success. It is thought that arroyo toad populations can be negatively affected by poorly timed episodic/high-flow events that flush out clutches; however, perhaps due to flow management, this phenomenon was not observed.