Short-eared owls (Asio flammeus) have undergone population declines over the last 40 years, though recent analyses of their occupancy trends in western North America suggest declines have stabilized regionally. In Hawai‘i, population trends of the endemic Short-eared owl subspecies (pueo, A. f. sandwichensis) are unknown. Here, we set out to estimate pueo population trends by applying a dynamic occupancy model to eBird data from 2011 to 2020 to estimate probabilities of site colonization and extinction, informing an estimate of pueo occupancy trends across Hawai‘i. Overall, pueo were scarce on the landscape with an average occupancy probability of 0.19 ± 0.01 SE. Site colonization and extinction probabilities were uninformed in the top model. Site colonization probabilities were lower than site extinction probabilities at 0.01 (95% CI: 0.01–0.03) and 0.08 (95% CI: 0.04–0.15) respectively. Overall population trends remained relatively stable with an annual rate of change of 0.98 ± 0.01 SE. Site turnover rate was low at 0.06 ± 0.01 SE, suggesting that pueo are less nomadic than Short-eared owls in western North America. This is the first study to quantify population dynamics of pueo; future studies should identify conservation actions aimed at maximizing site colonization and minimizing site extinction.

Chad is a quantitative ecologist who recently graduated with his MS in Natural Resources and Environmental Management from the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa and previously received a BS in Wildlife from Humboldt State University. During his time at UH Chad spent most of his time staring out the office window watching the white terns nesting while his code was running. He is extremely interested in using quantitative techniques to describe the world around him including how individuals and populations move through space and time.