CHANGING SEX RATIOS DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING FOR THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC LOGGERHEAD SEA TURTLE POPULATION

Marissa B Rykowski; University of Miami; m.rykowski@umiami.edu; Elizabeth A Babcock, William Harford

Global warming could be detrimental to sea turtle populations because sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination. With warmer temperatures, egg incubation produces a skew towards a female-biased sex ratio. Previous studies suggest that an increase in females is beneficial as more females lead to more eggs. However, these studies have not incorporated a sex ratio dependency for mating success. I compared two models, one with sex ratio-independent mating success and the other with sex ratio-dependent mating success, to see if there are differences in population growth for the Northwest Atlantic population of loggerhead sea turtles. Sex ratios were calculated based on regional temperature predictions from IPCC’s AR5 representative pathway scenarios (RCPs). An age-structured population dynamics model was used to track cohorts from 2005-2100. Hatchling numbers were calculated with and without dependency on mating success. The sex-ratio independent model showed an increase in population size in all scenarios, with the warmest RCP scenario having the greatest increase. Conversely, the sex-ratio-dependent model showed either a stable or decreasing population size. This shows that sex-ratio-dependent mating success may influence our perception of whether climate change is expected to affect sea turtle population growth trends negatively or positively.

Reptiles and Amphibians III   Student Paper InPerson Presentation