AN IMPROVED MODEL AND ESTIMATE OF CALIFORNIA'S BLACK BEAR POPULATION | |||
Thomas A Connor; California Department of Fish and Wildlife; thomas.connor@wildlife.ca.gov; Brett Furnas, Janelle Dorcy | |||
Accurate estimates of wildlife population sizes over time allow for more informed conservation of harvested species. Annual harvest data itself can be a valuable source of information for modeling populations, particularly in cases where age information is collected from harvested individuals. Coupled with prior knowledge of a species’ biology, these age-at-harvest (AAH) data can be modeled in an integrated Bayesian framework to estimate population sizes over time. Here, we apply this type of integrated population model (IPM) to AAH data collected from black bears in California over the last decade. We fit our statewide IPM in a hierarchical way to separately estimate black bear demographic rates and population dynamics in different proposed bear management regions (BMRs) by drawing from statewide prior distributions of black bear demography. Additionally, we created a binary annual covariate on survival rate in the hunting season to capture reduced hunting effort due to COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. Our IPM estimated a stable black bear population of approximately 73,700 (± ~ 15,000) bears in California, with some variation in estimated trends across the different BMRs. The IPM will allow for continued tracking of black bear populations across key areas of California under changing conditions. | |||
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