Climate change poses a threat to biological diversity, but we lack a nuanced understanding of which species are most at risk. Niche model projections are common approaches to evaluate these risks, however, they assume that species’ relationships to climate will not change. Adaptive capacity (AC) assessments are useful for overcoming these limitations, allowing us to assess potential responses and knowledge gaps. Here, we use North American pikas as a case study and contrast the AC for two species. While American pikas have a low adaptive capacity to respond to climate change, our results suggest that collared pikas, a sister species of American pikas, are at greater risk. The two exhibit similar ecology, but key differences in genetic diversity and recruitment likely reduce collared pikas’ ability to respond to climate change. Additionally, although they select for similar habitat, high latitudes are experiencing faster rates of climate change, making adaptation especially pressing. AC enables us to assess the limitations and strengths a species has and identify key knowledge gaps, such as data on the physiological tolerances of collared pikas. With standardized search protocols, these assessments will allow for rapid insights into climate change risk and research needs.