Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) abundance has declined across much of their historic range, yet they occupy a vast and heterogeneous landscape, experiencing diverse environmental, climatic, and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding how these factors influence population dynamics is essential for guiding conservation efforts and assessing future risks of extirpation. We compiled sage-grouse lek survey data from seven state wildlife agencies, totaling over 100,000 surveys conducted at 9,433 unique lek locations between the years 2000 and 2022. We used an ecological diffusion model in a Bayesian hierarchical statistical framework to better understand what factors are related to changes in sage-grouse distributions. The mechanistic model relates lek dynamics and growth to local habitat features allowing us to estimate covariate-driven motility. Our motility estimates help us examine what habitat features are related to resistance and resilience of sage-grouse leks, while carrying capacity estimates can give us insight on areas where resources are limited. Results quantify how specific habitat features relate to the loss or maintenance of sage-grouse leks and provide predictive maps of lek distributional changes over time.